GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – World Trade Organization has upgraded its forecast for worldwide merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent, representing a significant rise from the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The organization attributes the positive revision to stronger trade performance in the first half, supply chain adjustments, and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite major disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5 percent during the first six months of 2026. The WTO now anticipates merchandise trade growth of 4.1 percent in 2027.
A key driver behind the growth in merchandise trade during the first half has been the demand related to artificial intelligence. Goods enabling AI, including semiconductors and servers, contributed to 47 percent of global merchandise trade expansion. Trade in these products surged 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO further noted that global investment in AI infrastructure should see an increase of at least 30 percent in 2026. Robust demand for computing hardware has supported trade, even as other sectors experienced disruptions due to conflict and transportation limitations.
Supply chains worldwide have adapted to pressures across major commodity and shipping markets. In the Middle East, crude oil exports declined approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Exports of liquefied natural gas from the region dropped by 47 percent over the same period. However, increased shipments from other suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent globally. Meanwhile, LNG exports worldwide only fell by 1 percent. Additionally, container throughput globally rose by 3.9 percent through July as trade routes shifted through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-Enabled Goods Drive Global Merchandise Trade Growth
The optimistic outlook for goods trade stands in contrast to more subdued expectations for commercial services. The WTO has lowered its 2026 projection for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have intensified challenges for transport and international travel. International tourist arrivals decreased by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, with a mere 0.4 percent increase across the first half of the year. Growth in travel-related spending also slowed sharply between the two quarters.
Despite these setbacks, other service sectors performed better, with computer services exports increasing by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter. The WTO estimated a 12 percent growth in the second quarter. Exports of financial services grew 14 percent year-on-year in that period. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027 and foresees global GDP expanding by 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade Growth Varies Significantly Across Regions
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal considerable disparities across the global economy. The WTO expects Asia to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports for 2026. North American exports are projected to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa’s exports should rise by 5.6 percent. South America is forecast to see 3.4 percent growth. Conversely, Europe is expected to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest contraction, with merchandise exports predicted to fall by 17.2 percent this year.
Import growth also differs markedly between regions. Asia is forecast to have merchandise import growth of 9.5 percent, with Africa at 8.9 percent. North American imports are expected to increase by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. The Middle East, however, faces a 15.4 percent decrease in merchandise imports. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala commented that these latest figures demonstrate trade resilience while also highlighting the uneven impact of economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.