ROME / RankWire.AI / – Global cereal output in 2026 is expected to reach 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease compared to the previous year’s record. The Food and Agriculture Organization stated that this total would still rank as the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The latest estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the July forecast. This annual decrease amounts to 61.1 million tonnes and marks the most significant year-on-year decline since 2018.
Forecasts indicate global maize production at 1.309 billion tonnes, following weaker crop prospects that lowered earlier estimates. Prolonged summer heat and drought conditions negatively impacted yields across key European Union regions, particularly France and Poland. In addition, official estimates led to smaller downward revisions for India and Paraguay. However, unexpectedly good yields in Argentina and Brazil partially offset these reductions, as both nations are anticipated to produce well above average maize yields in 2026.
The global wheat output is now projected at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from prior estimates. Improvements in yield expectations have lifted forecasts for Canada and Morocco by approximately 1.5 million tonnes each. Additionally, projections for Russia and Ukraine have been raised, whereas dry weather conditions have lowered expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite this upward adjustment, the world wheat production remains 3.8% below 2025 levels and continues to rank as the second-largest crop on record.
Maize declines lead to global cereal production downgrade
Forecasts for global rice production stand at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis for the 2026/27 season, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from improved yields in Myanmar and strong main-crop results in Sri Lanka. These gains counterbalance reductions seen in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates worldwide cereal consumption to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a 0.2% rise compared to last season. An increase is expected in coarse grains and rice consumption, while wheat use is predicted to decline from the elevated levels of the previous season. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed consumption remains significant, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Global grain reserves stay at historically comfortable levels
World cereal stocks at the end of the 2027 seasons are estimated at 947.2 million tonnes, slightly below the previous projection by 10.7 million tonnes but still 1.8 million tonnes above initial levels. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is forecasted at 31.6%, compared to 31.9% in the previous season. Wheat stocks are expected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas reduced maize and barley inventories have lowered the overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals globally for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Despite this rise, total trade will still fall short of the record volumes seen in 2025/26. The stronger maize trade accounts for much of this increase, with Argentina potentially exporting up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade in 2026 is expected to reach 60.5 million tonnes, although overall rice shipments remain 1.9% below the 2025 record.