MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia aims to increase its yearly vehicle output to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035 as part of its revised automotive industry strategy. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this goal on Aug. 31 during a sector development meeting. The projection encompasses vehicles intended for both the domestic market and export channels. Additionally, the plan aspires for 80% of new vehicles sold in Russia to be locally produced by 2035.
The Russian government approved the updated automotive strategy on Aug. 24, extending the industry framework through 2035. As of the end of 2025, Russia’s vehicle production capacity was roughly 3.3 million units annually. In 2025, actual production was approximately 800,000 vehicles. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles. Truck production efficiency reached 35%, while buses operated at 43% capacity.
The target scenario envisions the production of about 2.5 million passenger cars and roughly 170,000 light commercial vehicles by 2035. It also includes plans for manufacturing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger car manufacturing will rely on four or five vehicle platforms, whereas light commercial vehicles will use one or two. The overall new-vehicle market is projected to reach around 3.2 million units in 2035, with imports making up to 20% of that total.
Production objectives span all vehicle categories
The strategy also features a conservative scenario with lower production and market estimates. Under this alternative, vehicle output would reach about 1.69 million units by 2035. The smaller scenario projects a new-vehicle market size of around 2.2 million units that year. For 2030, the target scenario estimates approximately 2.4 million vehicles in the new-vehicle market, while the conservative scenario predicts roughly 2 million vehicles across all segments by 2030.
A significant part of the revised plan involves setting targets for powertrain technology and innovation. It specifies that internal-combustion vehicles should constitute 67% to 83% of production in 2035, depending on vehicle type. By that year, electric and hybrid passenger cars are expected to hold at least 25% of the Russian new passenger-car market. The plan also aims to produce around 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher. Driver-assistance systems and digital vehicle technologies are also emphasized within the framework.
Capacity and localization goals remain crucial
Russia’s current manufacturing capacity vastly exceeds its recent annual output. Passenger-car capacity stood at approximately 2.8 million units in 2025, though actual production reached only about 700,000. Capacity for light commercial vehicles was around 300,000, with actual production near 80,000. Truck capacity was roughly 130,000 units, while bus capacity hovered near 30,000. In 2025, the country produced about 4,400 electric vehicles, up from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy emphasizes expanding the use of standardized components and technological commonality across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also sets ambitious localization and technological independence targets for domestically assembled vehicles. Covering passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technology, the framework aims to combine the 2.8 million annual production goal with the objective of 80% domestic market share. An action plan for implementation will be developed under the order that approved this updated strategy.