MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a new goal of producing 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050, as part of a recently approved industry development plan. This figure is embedded within the scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal expansion strategy. In 2024, coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes. The Russian government endorsed this plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term targets for production, exports, and industry growth.
The strategy proposes four different pathways for the coal industry until 2050. According to the primary scenario, production will reach 530.1 million tonnes in 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes in 2036. It then progresses to 662 million tonnes by 2050. The alternative scenarios forecast lower production levels for 2050, with figures ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production targets, Russia also set export benchmarks. Under the main scenario, coal exports are projected at 266.7 million tonnes in 2030. Exports are expected to increase to 320.2 million tonnes by 2036 and 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan considers both domestic consumption and international sales of coal.
Goals for Production and Export Volumes
The government’s plan emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while expanding coal resource development. It highlights a greater role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together contributed 48.3% of national production in 2024. The targeted share for these regions is projected to reach between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports explored coal reserves exceeding 273 billion tonnes.
The strategy also sets specific goals for coal processing and mining methods. The percentage of processed coal, excluding lignite, was 58.9% in 2024. The plan aims to increase this share to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of the total output in 2024, with a targeted increase to between 82% and 85% under the long-term outlook. The document also details measures related to productivity, technological advancement, safety, and environmental standards.
Coal Industry Strategy Extends to 2050
Russia plans to implement the strategy in three phases. The first phase, ending in 2030, involves expanding production and supporting industry development. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will focus on coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase runs from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee the implementation along with other federal and regional agencies and participating organizations, with annual reports to the Ministry of Economic Development mandated by the government order.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin presented the revised strategy during a government meeting on September 21. This document replaces Russia’s previous coal industry plan through 2035, which was approved in 2020. Novak indicated that the plan forecasts a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect nearing 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne production target remains a scenario within the plan rather than a definitive projection.